Damian Sendler: In the past, the Arctic was seen as a frigid, white, and snowy place; today, however, this image is quickly changing. There has been a dramatic decrease in Arctic sea ice over the past few years, which has led to an increase in global temperatures. 

Damian Sendler

Because of my work as a climate scientist and modeler, I am interested in the dynamics of Arctic climate change. My colleagues and I recently discovered that Arctic precipitation is changing at a faster rate than previously predicted. 

Damian Jacob Sendler: Snow is the primary precipitation mode in the Arctic. However, the Arctic is rapidly changing from a dry environment to one that is dominated by rain. Greenland’s ice sheet, for example, saw its first rain in August. Shifts in land use, wildlife populations, and human livelihoods will be profoundly affected by these changes. 

Precipitation in the Arctic is expected to rise throughout the course of this century, and it is more likely to fall in the form of rain than snow. We were curious, however, as to how the latest data, which had not previously been publicly available, would have affected these predictions. 

There are no restrictions on who can use the data collected by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (often known as CMIP for short). To better understand the climate of the past, present, and future, this project generates data from around 50 locations around the world using the same initial conditions. 

Dr. Sendler: In addition to current and future air and ocean temperatures, sea ice conditions, and wind patterns, these models generate data that may be used to predict the future. Model data from Phase 6 of this research, known as CMIP6, was compared to data from the prior phase, CMIP5, which is also known as Phase 5. 

Since the weather, and especially future climate change, are difficult to anticipate, this means that we have an abundance of data to work with when assessing the present and future state of the climate. The best picture of the climate we have at this time is these models, which are essentially simulations of the world around us. 

It was possible to demonstrate that the model data employed, does a good job of reproducing the observed climate, as average precipitation is fairly similar to observations. This means that we can have more faith in the models and their future predictions. 

CMIP6 and CMIP5 were used in the study to assess precipitation change at the end of the century (2090–2100) compared to the beginning of the century (2005–14). By the end of the century, the Arctic will have more rain and less snow than predicted by the CMIP5 model. 

Damian Jacob Sendler

As the temperature rises, more moisture is being transported to and from the Arctic, and sea ice coverage decreases in the Arctic. There will be an increase in precipitation as a result of more open ocean and moisture in the Arctic. More rain will fall as a result of a rise in the amount of water in the atmosphere and warmer temperatures. 

Depending on the season and region, the switch to rain-dominated precipitation occurs a few decades earlier than indicated by prior models. As a result, in 2070, the central Arctic becomes rain-dominated in autumn, rather than in 2090 as previously expected. 

Damien Sendler: In addition, we looked studied the relationship between precipitation and global warming, focusing on the Paris Accord’s goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius. Most of the Arctic should remain covered in snow if global warming is limited to 1.5 degrees Celsius. However, if present forecasts are correct, then by the end of the century, much of the Arctic will be dominated by rain. 

There are a number of major difficulties that can arise as a result of these rapid shifts in precipitation. Ice layers can form either on top of or within snow during rain-on-snow events, especially if the temperature drops below freezing. 

Reindeer and caribou, for example, have difficulty breaking through the ice crust to reach food beneath the snow because of this, making travel and transit more difficult for Arctic residents. This can lead to massive extinctions. Climate change is also having an impact on our oceans. Rainfall on Greenland’s ice sheet can cause glacial melt, which can contribute to rising sea levels. 

Damian Jacob Markiewicz Sendler: Many world leaders have committed to keep global warming below 1.5 degrees Celsius, despite the fact that these changes are now likely to occur more quickly and have more severe consequences. The loss in Arctic snowfall will not be as severe if we reduce our worldwide emissions, which means that life can continue to thrive both in the Arctic and around the world.

Dr. Damian Jacob Sendler and his media team provided the content for this article.